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The first trading day of the Year of the Rat: A shares plunge north to go crazy

The first trading day of the Year of the Rat: A shares plunge north to go 厦门夜网 crazy
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!  The first trading day of the Year of the Rat: A shares plunged, and funds from the north went wild!Are these stock opportunities coming?  Source: Deep Blue Finance’s new coronavirus pneumonia is menacing. On the first trading day of the Lunar Year of the Mouse, stocks encountered dark moments.The three major indexes fell collectively at the start of trading, with the Shanghai Index falling 8.At 7%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 9.13%, GEM Index fell 8.23%, with the exception of masks, pharmaceuticals and other sectors, most of the sectors fell severely.  At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.72% reported at 2746.61 points; SZSE Component Index fell 8.45%, reported 9779.67 points; GEM Index fell 西安耍耍网 6.85% at 1795.77 points.  In progress, Li Xunlei believes that the stock market will bottom out before the epidemic situation improves.In addition, a number of experts, brokers said that they are optimistic about the long-term development of A shares, and opportunities in the pharmaceutical and online education sectors.  Today, a total of 3,233 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen have fallen by more than 8%, 3185 stocks have fallen by more than 9%, and 88 stocks have risen by more than 9%.  Science and technology board 9 rose 70 fell.The biggest increase was Jate Bio (688026), which was listed less than 5 trading days, and closed up 108.54%; the biggest decline was also listed in less than 5 trading days Youkude (688158), closing down 27.12%.  On the disk, major industry sectors approached the overall decline, and new materials, semiconductors, environmental protection, military, securities firms, oil, steel and other sectors fell the most.  In terms of sectors, the pharmaceutical sector continued to strengthen, with more than 20 stocks including Harbin Pharmaceutical (600664), Northeast Pharmaceutical (000597) and Jiangsu Wuzhong (600200).  The concept of e-sports was once active, the daily limit of the Three Five Network (300051), the daily limit of the electronic soul network (603258), Kunlun Wanwei (300418), the second six three (002467) and other high gains.  Except for A shares, the epidemic has generally declined in overseas markets. This week, Hong Kong stocks fell 6%, US stocks and European stocks fell about 3%.Today, the Nikkei 225 Index closed down 1.1%, the lowest since November 21, 2019.The Hang Seng Index rebounded and closed up 0.17%, pharmaceutical stocks strengthened, China Resources Pharmaceutical rose more than 5%, Shanghai Pharmaceutical rose more than 4%, Xiaomi Group rose more than 4%, CSPC rose nearly 4%.  In terms of commodity futures, most of them are mainly declines. Fuel oil, TA, iron ore, No. 20 rubber, rubber, asphalt, rebar, hot coil, crude oil, Zhengmian, methanol, eggs, soybean oil, palm oil, and glass all closed with limit.; Only a few varieties such as gold closed up.  Potential gains on Treasury futures rose, and the 10-year main contract rose by 1.37%, a new high of more than 3 years; the 5-year main contract rose 0.71%.The daily minimum budget reached 1.20 trillion US dollars in reverse repurchase operations. As 105 billion reverse repurchases expired today, a net investment of 150 billion US dollars was realized on the day.  On the foreign exchange market, offshore RMB and USD / USD both fell below the 7 mark.According to data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar today fell by 373 points to 6 from the previous day.9249, the median price depreciation to the lowest since January 13, 2020, the largest decline since August 6, 2019.  But the only thing is that at the same time that the A-shares fell sharply, Kitakami Capital bought against the trend.  In the afternoon, Northbound funds accelerated the bottoming of A shares, and the net inflow of funds has reached 12 billion yuan.Late in the morning, Northbound funds accelerated to raise A shares, and the net inflow of funds has reached 15 billion US dollars.Net inflows of 20 billion yuan throughout the day.  In the face of the current situation of A shares, Tang Jun and Li Xunlei said that the prediction of the spread of new coronavirus based on mathematical models, and the isolation and prevention and control measures can achieve or approach the effect of the later stage of SARS.Reaching 88,500 or 58,000 or so, the number of additional confirmed diagnoses will have an inflection point around February 17 (under neutral assumptions) or February 11 (under optimistic assumptions).  Judging from the performance of the US H1N1 outbreak in 2009 and the performance of US stocks, Hong Kong stocks and A stocks during the SARS period in 2003, during the rapid spread of the epidemic, the stock market will adjust significantly, but the magnitude will not be large and often before the epidemic situation improvesBe the first to hit the bottom.  CSRC: Issuing regulatory arrangements to deal with the impact of the epidemic Faced with the impact of the epidemic, the supervisory authorities have also taken timely action.  On February 3, the Issuing Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the “Notice on the relevant arrangements for the issuance of regulatory support for the prevention and control of new coronavirus infections and pneumonia epidemics.”The time limit for the post-termination review, such as the time limit related to the issuance review, and the validity period of the refinancing approval issued, are suspended.  During the epidemic prevention and control period, in order to facilitate the relevant entities, the issuing department opened documents by fax, email, and CD-ROM.  In addition, the Shanghai Stock Exchange also issued a notice, starting February 3, the suspension of the calculation of the time limit for the issuance of science and technology board.  The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the “Notice on Fully Supporting the Supervisory Business Arrangements Related to the Prevention and Control of New Coronavirus Infection and Pneumonia Epidemic”. Since February 3, the first public listing review of the science and technology board, the major asset reorganization review of listed companies and other relatedDuring the review, the issuer ‘s response time limit as stipulated by the rules, as well as the issuer ‘s time limit for updating the financial report, are suspended for calculation; the specific restoration calculation time will be notified according to the epidemic prevention and control situation.During the project review, we will not accept appointments for on-site communication and on-site consultation.Project personnel of the sponsor institution can raise questions online through the auditing business system of the firm or call the relevant staff by telephone. The firm’s science and technology board review agency will respond in a timely manner.  Brokers are optimistic about online education, telecommuting, gaming, and video. In the face of A-share turbulence in the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, Anxin Strategy believes that the epidemic will always pass, and the essence of the market’s fall is actually a strategic layout.”In particular, we should cherish the rare opportunity brought by the adjustment of high-quality technology stocks.  In addition to concept stocks such as masks, medicine, and virus infections, many brokerages also recommend focusing on areas such as computers and remote offices.  GF Securities: The epidemic highlights the importance of Internet medical intervention We believe that the sudden epidemic is unfortunate, but from the perspective of industrial development: (1) Promote the development of Internet medical (broad), accelerate the formation of user habits, and gradually develop entitiesThe scale of the hospital’s integrated Internet access has increased investment in hospital construction.(2) In the long run, relying on the actual hospital, in the long term, relying on physical hospitals, Internet body hospitals that provide services for chronic re-examination of some common diseases and family health services, and Internet + medical services for services for some common diseases, re-examination of chronic diseases and family health servicesThe model is promoted by the Health and Health Commission, and has experienced the user habit cultivation this time.(3) From the perspective of business processes, the registered service provided by most hospitals’ online ports is only one step. The more important middle and back office medical information exchange and circulation are only one step. The more important middle and back office medical information interaction and circulation.Optimize the allocation of resources within the hospital and between hospitals.  Key companies: Wei Ning Health, entrepreneurial wisdom.It is recommended to pay attention to Donghua Software, Jiuyuan Yinhai and other related companies.  Soochow Securities: Higher education, online education is expected to become a risk-avoiding investment in the consumer industry. (1) Higher education sector companies that are undervalued by Hong Kong stocks will remain balanced in the next few years, driven by the increase in student numbers and snow fees.Growth rate.At the same time, the performance growth of these schools is less affected by the epidemic situation. At present, Kepei / Xinhua / People’s Livelihood / New Higher Education can only convert 12/9/8 to maintain the buy rating for 20 years; (2) recommended market space segmentation, industry growthNew Oriental Online, a leader in online education that is fast and not affected by the epidemic; (3) It is recommended to pay attention to the leading educational training, Li Sichen, Excellent Education Group that actively develops online courses despite the impact of a certain epidemic.  New Era Securities: Maintains optimistic about the main line of games and video investment. Video: The conventional video platform launches a series of epidemic topics. Quickly sponsor the Spring Festival Gala. Byte plus code long videos.  We maintain long-term investment opportunities for video streaming, and do not extend long videos, short videos, high-definition videos, and even live video conference videos. We are optimistic about the long-term development of new-generation content production and communication carriers and applications at this stage.  Games: Closed and isolated, games are accelerating realization, ushering in holidays, extending the start-up and returning to work, and delaying blessings to maintain investment opportunities for games.  Beneficiaries: Perfect World, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, Gigabit, Perfect World, Youzu Network, Kunlun Wanwei, Baotong Technology, Palmtech, Century Huatong, etc .; Beneficiaries: Mango Super Media, New Media, Oriental Pearl, People’s Daily Online, Xinhua Daily, China Media, etc .; Overseas benefits: Tencent, Heartbeat, Station B, etc.  Many experts are optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of the A-share epidemic. The long-term response to the A-shares. Many experts believe that it is only a short-term adjustment. In the long run, the economic development situation has not changed significantly. The policy support is also very strong.development of.There is also a person who believes that now is the opportunity to open positions, and recently paid attention to the technology, medical sector, and the opportunity to make up positions in the oversold sector.  Li Zhan, chief economist of Zhongshan Securities: Since the epidemic continued to ferment and even attracted much attention, stocks began to deviate before the Spring Festival. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index fell about 4% in the four trading days before the Spring Festival.The stocks also continued to decline by about 5% in the two trading days after the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, under the combined influence of multiple negative factors such as the A50 futures index and the downward fluctuation of European and American stock indexes, the main index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares may usher in a shock adjustment period.  However, whether it is the domestic macro economy or some sub-sectors, the impact of the epidemic situation is generally short-term, and the long-term development of the economy and industry has not changed.Therefore, the probability that the epidemic will affect the A-share market is as short-term as the impact of the SARS epidemic on the A-share market that year.In terms of different industries, the short-term performance of medical supplies, medicines and passively beneficial games, cloud office, and online education related to the epidemic will be greatly boosted.Combined with the performance of the capital market under a similar background of naphthalene, we believe that the pharmaceutical biology, computer, gaming, electronic communications and other industries are expected to achieve better performance.  Political commissar Lu, chief economist of Industrial Bank: Faced with the epidemic, although many provinces and cities extended the Spring Festival holiday to February 9, most A-share markets still decided to open the market on February 3 as scheduled.This reflects the full confidence of policy authorities in national economic and market recognition.In fact, in the face of the possible impact of the epidemic, policy authorities are fully prepared.  Outbreaks are usually short-lived.According to the experience during the SARS period in 2003, the three industries most affected by the epidemic are transportation, wholesale and retail, and catering, but basically these industries will recover quickly after 1-3 months after the epidemic is lifted.At the same time, taking into account the changes in the preliminary economic structure and consumption patterns of the residents in recent years, the proportion of these three industries in the economic size of developing countries has decreased compared to that of SARS at that time, thus creating a new coronary disease.The relative impact on the economy will be lower than at the time of SARS.The experience of international financial markets is also that the impact of the epidemic will not be sustained.  Policies are well prepared.In the face of the epidemic, although many provinces and cities extended the Spring Festival holiday to February 9, each year the A-share market still decided to open the market on February 3 as scheduled.This reflects the full confidence of policy authorities in national economic and market recognition.In fact, in the face of the possible impact of the epidemic, policy authorities are fully prepared.Forward-looking policies and measures are expected to gradually and effectively support market integration.  Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund: Today is the first trading day after the holiday. As I analyzed before, due to the existence of the long holiday effect, the bearish one-time centralized release, the broader market shrinks one step, and the opening limit is now 1,000 shares.Obviously, panic dominates the short-term trend.Pharmaceutical stocks, online education, new energy automobile leading stocks bucked the trend, and white dragon and horse stocks did not fall.It is self-evident that the essence of value investing is that holding stocks with good fundamentals, even today’s limit, do not have to worry, the market outlook will soon rebound, and poor performance stocks and substitute stocks may continue to limit, and stand up.  Therefore, I suggest everyone to operate. First, if you are holding high-quality white horse stocks, you don’t need to worry, and you don’t need to worry about short-term reductions, because according to historical experience, the market decline caused by the epidemic is often short-lived.A fast market will usher in a rebound, and good stocks will take the lead in setting a new rebound high, so if you hold high-quality stocks, you can calm down and don’t worry.Secondly, if the holder is a poor performer, change the stock, you must be careful. You can take advantage of this adjustment opportunity to adjust the position and share in a timely manner to find an opportunity to buy high-quality stocks.  Li Qilin, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Before the market growth, there was an expectation of economic stabilization. The epidemic will affect the expectation of economic stabilization. The boots are bad for the broader market, and it is good for bonds, especially long-term interest rate debt.Considering downtime and rigid interest expense pressures, credit risk also needs attention.  As far as the sector is concerned, the sectors with favorable epidemic situation have reduced to a few sectors such as biomedicine and online consumer education. The sectors of large finance, large cycle, large consumption, media theater, etc. have reduced pressure.The resolution of these pressures is directly related to the positive control of the epidemic and fiscal and monetary policies.  Considering that 2020 is the year when a well-off society will be fully established and poverty alleviation efforts will be completed, as long as the epidemic is under control, both fiscal and monetary activities can be expected, and the market will anticipate this change in advance.Based on the above facts, as long as there is a marginal change in the epidemic situation, the stock may quickly stop falling and rebound.

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